Betting research · the Bozo Cave

Props

What a player has actually done against a number — and what the price really implies once the vig comes out.

No picks here The closing line is almost unbiased and no simple angle survives an honest test. Why ▸

Across 4,990 games since 2007 the closing spread is off from the real margin by 0.03 points on average — no lean either way — and the closing total by 0.63. I tested 72 angles against that history: nine beat the break-even rate, none survived correction for multiple comparisons, and of the eight best angles found in 2007–2018, one was still above water in 2019–2026. See the working →

So this page has no picks in it. Sides and totals are close to a coin flip after the vig; the value here is the arithmetic and the player-level history, which is where a careful person can still find something.

Pick a game for every prop the book is offering, one card per player, with the line against his own history on every market. How to read a prop →

Props

Prop Lab

Players with posted lines

Biggest line moves